Featured Indicator: Thanksgiving Trends

November 22, 2021 Jessica Tagliafierro

A blue abstract spiral shape with text reading "Featured Indicator: Thanksgiving Trends" over the top of it

As we look forward to celebrating Thanksgiving later this month we decided to take a look at some of the data trends related to all aspects of the holiday from the food, to the travel, and the shopping. Data included here is sourced from Statista, which provides a wide variety of Thanksgiving related data, with many series available for free on their website.

  • From 1999 to 2020 the number of turkeys produced in the United States has decreased by over 17%. There has been an 8% decrease since 2017 alone. Due to the pandemic, demand for smaller turkeys (<16 lbs) was much higher than normal in 2020 as people gathered to celebrate in smaller than normal groups.[1] While the trend for 2021 remains to be seen, suppliers have already warned about a shortage in smaller sized fresh turkeys, due to historical trends in reduced production and slowing demand, coupled with reduced labor and increased costs as a result of the pandemic.[2]

Line Chart Title: Total Number of Turkeys Produced in the United States from 1999 to 2020 (in thousands) A line chart shows that turkey production has had several peaks and valleys over this 21-year time span, but numbers have also been steadily declining. In 1999, 270,192 turkeys were produced in the US. In 2020, 224,000 turkeys were produced. The two biggest production years during this time frame were 2002, when 272,660 turkeys were produced, and 2008, when 273,088 turkeys were produced. The lowest number of turkeys produced during this time period was in 2020 (224,000). Data Source: US Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service Chart developed by Statista in 2021

  • The average price of those hard-to-come by 16 lb. turkeys was $19.39 in 2020. The basic ingredients for a 10-person Thanksgiving dinner averaged $46.90 last year.

 

  • In 2020, 50.6 million people traveled for Thanksgiving. This is down from travel levels in 2017-2019, but above travel from 2008-2016. Over the period from 2005 to 2020, peak Thanksgiving holiday travel was back in 2005.

Column Chart Title: Number of Thanksgiving Holiday Travelers in the United States from 2005 to 2020 2005: 58.6 million 2006: 47.6 million 2007: 50.6 million 2008: 37.8 million 2009: 37.9 million 2010: 40.9 million 2011: 43.3 million 2012: 44 million 2013: 44.4 million 2014: 46.6 million 2015: 47.7 million 2016: 49.29 million 2017: 51.71 million 2018: 54.3 million 2019: 55.3 million 2020: 50.6 million Data Source: American Automobile Association Chart developed by Statista in 2021

  • The share of consumers shopping on Black Friday has been lower in recent years compared to 2015 and 2016. In 2020, 36% of consumers planned to shop on Black Friday.

Column Chart Title: Share of Consumers Who Plan to Do Most of Their Shopping on Black Friday in the United States from 2015 to 2020 2015: 59% 2016: 51% 2017: 35% 2018: 37% 2019: 36% 2020: 36% Data Source: PwC Chart developed by Statista in 2020

 

Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at Camoin Associates!

 

[1] Krstic, Zee. Is There a National Turkey Shortage? How Thanksgiving and Other Holidays May Be Impacted. Good Housekeeping, 2 Sept. 2021.

[2] Fickensher, Lisa. Thanksgiving Turkeys May be Harder to Come by This Year. New York Post, 15 Aug. 2021.

Image Source: Adobe Spark and Camoin Associates

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